Tuesday, December 3, 2024

Sydney’s Rental Market Trends and Forecasts

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Key takeaways

Sydney’s rental market faces ultra-low vacancy rates and intense demand, worsened by high immigration and limited new housing.

Rising construction costs and fewer new projects contribute to a severe rental shortage.

Limited supply keeps rents high, with affordability increasingly strained.

Regulatory hurdles and rising costs deter investors, likely extending Sydney’s rental crisis.


Sydney’s rental market continues to be in crisis, with extremely low vacancy rates, high rent prices, strong demand, and a rising population keeping the city’s property market in a pressure cooker environment.

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Note: While this situation has softened a little lately, recent data highlights the ongoing distressing state of Sydney’s rental market which has created a bleak environment for renters.

Here’s a rundown of all the current Sydney rental market trends, and what we can expect to face next.

Current rental market trends in Sydney

The rental market has undergone significant changes in recent years, but now Sydney’s renters are facing a perfect storm of trends that are combining to create significant headwinds for the market.

Here’s a breakdown of the eight key factors contributing to Sydney’s rental crisis.

1. Sydney has low vacancy rates


Extremely low vacancy rates and heated competition across the state are keeping the NSW rental market in what many are calling “crisis mode”.

Sydney’s rental vacancy rate sits at just 1.6%, according to SQM Research.

Anything below 2% describes a situation where demand from tenants exceeds the supply of available properties.

While that’s an improvement from the 1.1% record-low recorded in February 2024, it’s still considerably lower than the 2% needed to be considered a balanced rental market, and considerably lower than the 4.3% vacancy rate peak that Sydney recorded in May 2020.

The areas that have the lowest number of available rentals were the Sutherland Shire at a 0.365% vacancy rate, followed by Camden and Bankstown with 0.4%, then the Eastern Suburbs and Canterbury, both at 0.5%. the Northern Beaches at 0.73% and the Eastern Suburbs at 0.9%.

As of September 2024, there are just 11,360 available properties for rent across Sydney.

While this is an improvement from earlier in the year, it is less than the 12,143 available properties recorded in June 2023, which is roughly in line with the number recorded in June the previous year.

Sydney's Residential Vacancy RatesSydney's Residential Vacancy Rates

Source: SQM Research

In contrast, the national vacancy rate sits at just 1.21% for September 2024, with 37,932 properties available for rent.

This is a drop from 1.3% and 39,793 properties SQM Research recorded in its data in December last year.

Why is the vacancy rate still so low?

In short, it’s because demand is at an all-time high, and any available properties are being snapped up immediately by renters.

This leads to the next key trend in Sydney’s rental market…

2. Sydney has an undersupply of rental properties

Sydney has been facing a rental housing shortage for several years now.

This has led to increased competition for available homes, driving up rentals and making it increasingly difficult for many Australians to afford a place to live.

One of the aspects of the housing market boom during the pandemic was that it was driven by owner-occupier buyers.

At that time, many investors took the opportunity to sell off properties, partly due to uncertainty about rental demand but also because, in many cases, rising home prices provided the opportunity to sell out with solid capital gains.

In short, property prices skyrocketed, so some (in my mind short-sighted) investors cashed in.

But as a flurry of investors sold up, the supply of investor-owned properties (i.e., rental properties) dropped.

By the end of 2021, 25% of properties sold across the nation were previously-rented properties and that figure only climbed higher through 2022 and 2023.

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You can see from the above chart that the number of rental properties has flatlined since the Covid-19 pandemic when many sold off their properties.

While I can understand that investors wanted to get in on the price boom action, but I consider it a short-sighted move, and one which has only exacerbated today’s rental crisis.

But it wasn’t just investors who sold off their properties.

There were also many owner-occupiers who sold up around the time that prices reached their peak and moved into rental accommodation while they looked for their next property (or in the hope that prices would fall).

So not only has the number of investment properties sharply fallen, but there has also been an uptick in the number of renters who were once owner-occupiers, also putting pressure on the market.

3. Supply of new property has tapered

Of course, the undersupply of rental properties is two-fold – on one hand, many rental properties have been sold to owner-occupiers, and on the other hand, there is a narrow pipeline of new projects nearing completion.

An apartment oversupply and other regulatory and non-regulatory factors have resulted in the collapse of investor demand for Sydney “off the plan” apartments.

Booming construction costs and a low supply of materials over the pandemic have caused many projects to stall, and fail to get off the ground, and there has been an uptick in the number of building companies going into insolvency.

According to CoreLogic’s Cordell Construction Cost Index, construction costs for NSW grew 1% over the September 2024 quarter, in line with the pre-Covid decade average, up 0.5% from the previous quarter and is the strongest quarterly increase seen from the three months to December 2022 (1.9%).

The annual increase also rose 3.2%, up from 2.6% over the 12 months to June, although down from this time last year (4.0%).

While construction cost increases have stabilised, prices still remain exceptionally high.

CoreLogic Economist Kaytlin Ezzy said the data would likely put additional pressure on the Federal Government’s target of 1.2 million new homes.

With the official start date for the Government’s target for 1.2 million new well-located homes over five years kicking off in July, the recent re-acceleration of the CCCI could put additional pressure on an already difficult-to-achieve goal.

Over the year to June, approximately 176,000 dwellings were completed, -26.6% below the 240,000 annually needed to fulfil the target.

While 250,000 homes remain within the construction pipeline nationally, the sluggish flow of new dwelling approvals suggests a shortfall of projects once the backlog is worked through.

Kaytlin Ezzy, CoreLogic’s Economist

In August, national monthly dwelling approvals came in -17.9% below the decade average and -30.0% under the 20,000-a-month target needed to achieve the Government’s goal.

At the same time, increased government intervention has dissuaded investors, which also puts pressure on supply.

One of the most attractive advantages of being a property investor is control – you have full control over how you use and improve the asset.



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