Key takeaways
The probability of an Australian property crash is very low.
A crash typically occurs when “forced sellers” significantly discount property prices due to an absence of buyers. Such a scenario could arise from severe recession, high unemployment, or skyrocketing mortgage costs, none of which are prevalent factors in the current market.
Several factors contribute to the resilience of the Australian property market, including robust household wealth, minimal mortgage stress for the majority of borrowers, stable interest rates (which are expected to have peaked), conservative loan stress-testing by banks, a chronic housing supply shortage, substantial overseas migration, and a strong national economy.
While high household debt, declining affordability, decreased sales, rising inventory, oversupply, policy changes, external shocks, speculative activity, banking sector instability, worsening affordability, and global economic factors can influence market dynamics, they are unlikely to lead to a crash without the presence of forced sellers.
Despite periodic concerns and predictions of a property crash, adopting an evidence-based approach and focusing on long-term outcomes by investing in high-quality properties in prime locations is recommended for investors to navigate market fluctuations successfully.
This question is one of the most common questions I come across from beginner property investors.
You see, in markets like we see today, investors, buyers, and even renters are waiting to find out whether they should take the plunge now or wait for prices to come down… or even crash entirely is some property pessimists are suggesting.
I’ll say right now that an Australian property crash is very, very unlikely, and in a moment I’m going to share 10 reasons why.
Put simply… for a property market to “crash” there must be forced sellers and nobody on the other side of the transaction to purchase their properties.
In other words, we’d need to see a scenario where sellers would be forced to give away their properties at very significant discounts.
Note: Remember, home sellers are also homebuyers – they have to live somewhere, and the only reason they would be forced to sell and give up their home would be if they were not able to keep up their mortgage payments.
This means a real estate crash could occur if:
- Australia experienced a severe recession. This is very unlikely in the foreseeable future with the Australian economy heading for a soft landing as inflation comes under controls and interest rates slowly fall, but even in the severe recession of the early 1990s, other than in the State of Victoria which was hardest hit by the downturn, our housing markets held their own.
- Unemployed levels are so high that homeowners can’t keep up with their mortgage payments. However, today, Australia’s national unemployment rate is stable and low, meaning anyone who wants a job can get a job.
Unemployment rates trend by state:
Source: ABS
- Mortgage costs (interest rates) zoom up – yet today, despite the 13 interest rate rises, mortgage arrears are still comparatively low, and experts widely believe we’re now at the peak of the interest rate cycle.
Sure the Australian property market has shown extraordinary resilience in recent years due to strong population growth and supply shortages, but it has also done so over the long term because it is underpinned by the fact that around 70% of all residential properties are owned by home occupiers and around half of these don’t even have a mortgage on their homes.
Note: In fact, according to CoreLogic, the total residential real estate market is valued at just over $11 trillion and there are only $2.3 trillion in mortgages against all those 11.2 million properties.
It’s true that housing affordability is becoming an increasing concern today, and there will always be property pessimists out there warning of a housing crash, but the fact is that Australia has never experienced a “property crash”.
Of course, the market regularly experiences corrections after a period of rapid growth, but a significant price decline has never occurred in the past and seems unlikely at any time in the foreseeable future.
Key indicators of a housing market crash
Let’s look at a few of the factors that the ‘Negative Nellies’ suggest could lead the housing bubble to burst.
1. High household debt
Of course an elevated level of household debt, especially mortgage debt relative to income, can increase the risk of default if borrowers face financial stress due to job loss or interest rate hikes.
While some first-home buyers and naïve investors have overcommitted financially, overall, Australians are coping well with their debt.
2. Declining Affordability
A significant decrease in housing affordability, where a large portion of the population struggles to afford homeownership due to high prices and/or rising interest rates can dampen demand and contribute to a market downturn, but this doesn’t lead to a crash as there is a significant volume of new buyers ready to enter the market to soak up a bargains.
In fact, over 1 million new first-home buyers entered the property market over the last decade.
3. Decreased Sales and Rising Inventory
A noticeable decline in home sales coupled with a rise in housing inventory levels suggests weakening demand and potential oversupply, which could exert downward pressure on prices and trigger a market correction.
But again, this won’t cause a property market crash if there are no “forced sellers”.
If you think about it, homeowners would rather eat Maggi Noodles than give away their homes.
4. Oversupply of Housing
Although unlikely given the current supply and demand imbalance in Australia’s property market, an oversupply of housing, particularly in certain markets or property types, could lead to lower occupancy rates, increased vacancy rates, and downward pressure on prices.
But as I keep saying, this may cause a correction to a “normal” cycle – not a crash.
5. Policy Changes
Changes in government policies related to taxation, immigration, or housing regulations could impact housing demand or affordability, potentially leading to price declines.
However, the Australian government has been proactive in implementing policies that support the property market.
Neither they nor the banks want the property market to crash.
Initiatives like the First Home Owner Grant (FHOG) and other first-home buyer incentives, stamp duty reliefs, and temporary measures like the HomeBuilder program during the pandemic, have all played a role in stimulating market activity.
Also, regulatory bodies continue to ensure a balanced approach to foreign investment in real estate, which helps maintain a healthy level of external investment without overheating the market.
6. External Shocks
External factors such as global economic downturns, geopolitical tensions, or natural disasters could negatively impact home buyer and investor confidence but are unlikely to trigger a significant sell-off in the housing market.
7. Speculative Activity
Speculative buying, particularly by investors seeking short-term gains rather than long-term occupancy, can contribute to housing “bubbles”.
Each property upturn paves the way for the next stage in the market cycle—the property correction phase, when speculative activity diminishes or reverses, which could lead to a correction in prices.
This occurs more in investor driven markets rather than in markets underpinned by a large percentage of owner occupiers.
8. Banking Sector Instability
Any instability in the banking sector, such as a credit crunch or a crisis in the financial system, could restrict lending and reduce access to credit, dampening housing demand and prices.
However, Australia’s banking sector is highly regulated and is in a sound, stable condition.
9. Worsening Affordability
Persistent affordability challenges, where a large portion of the population struggles to afford housing due to high prices relative to incomes, could eventually lead to reduced demand and price corrections.
However, this is very different from the situation required to cause property crashes where homeowners have to sell up and virtually give away their homes.
10. Global Economic Factors
Events in the global economy, such as changes in interest rates by major central banks, fluctuations in commodity prices, or shifts in investor sentiment towards Australian assets, could impact housing market dynamics and contribute to price volatility, but again, not a “crash”.
In fact, the International Monetary Fund recently published its latest update on the state of the world economy, predicting the world economy will continue growing at 3.2 percent during 2024 and at 3.5% in 2025.
Major Australian trading partner GDP growth graph:
Source: ABS, CEIC Data, LSEG, RBA
Factors that keep Australian housing market resilience
Here are 7 reasons why the Australian property bubble is just as resilient as ever:
1. The average Australian is wealthier than ever
According to the latest ABS figures, household wealth has risen for the 7 consecutive quarters, up 1.5% or $250 billion.
Total household wealth was $16.5 trillion in the June quarter of 2024, which was 9,3% ($1.4 trillion) higher than a year ago.
And not surprisingly this was largely driven by residential real estate, which contributed 1.3% to quarterly growth.
Over the last few years, surging property prices have meant that many homeowners have significantly more equity in their homes than prior to the pandemic.
Combine these two things with a strongly performing superannuation and shares portfolio, and the average Australian is now wealthier than ever.
Australian household wealth and liabilities graph:
Source: ABS, RBA
2. No sign of mortgage stress for the majority of borrowers
There is no doubt that rising interest rates and inflation have created a substantial squeeze on households with mortgages, nudging many to recalibrate their budgets.
Yet despite rising interest rates over the last couple of years and all the talk about mortgage stress, to date, households have prioritised their repayments, and there is little evidence of mortgage arrears or motivated selling.
Sure, some first homeowners have overextended themselves, and some investors have borrowed too much on the wrong properties, but, in general, the percentage of borrowers in “real trouble” is low.
In reality, half of all homeowners have no mortgage at all.
And those who do have a mortgage are well ahead in their mortgage repayments – APRA estimates that Australians currently have over $270 billion stashed in offset accounts.
Australian banks’ non-performing loans:
Source: APRA
3. Interest rates look to have peaked
The Reserve Bank has raised interest rates 13 times since May 2022 in an effort to dampen climbing inflation.
But for the first 10 months of 2024, the Reserve Bank has kept the rates on hold.
Many strongly expect that after a series of hold decisions, rates will decline throughout 2025.
Commonwealth Bank, Australia’s biggest lender, forecasts 5 interest rate cuts, starting in December this year, to bring the cash rate down to 3.10%.
Others are suggesting rate cuts will now come a little later on because inflation is still higher than what the RBA wants to see.
Westpac, National Australia Bank and ANZ all expect that we’ll see the first interest rate cut in February 2025.
Westpac expects 4 rate cuts to 3.35%, NAB expects 5 rate cuts to 3.10% and ANZ expects 3 rate cuts to 3.60%.
4. Banks are conservative with stress-testing loans
When you borrow money, the bank or lender has a responsibility to ensure you have the financial capacity to service the mortgage repayments now and in the future.
Each bank and lender has its own stress test assessment based on the bank’s own appetite for risk, which is why your borrowing capacity can vary significantly from one lender to another.
On top of the assessment rate, the bank will also apply certain other factors and will load your existing (other) loans by a buffer, they account for all your incomes including wages and rental income(s), and they also include the limits on all of your credit cards.
The lender will also account for the number of financial dependents you have in your household, and apply a cost of living, which is the living amount used by the bank and may or may not be the same as what you and your household actually spend.
And if you’ve tried to borrow money recently, you’d know that the banks are incredibly conservative with stress-testing loan applications.
5. There is a dire property supply shortage
Australia is suffering from a chronic supply shortage with a thin pipeline of residential construction or a viable solution to help the problem.
While this is dire news for Australians looking to get into the property or rental market, the sharp shortage of housing does help to outweigh the negative impact of rising interest rates on property prices.
Which in turn, helps with market resilience.
6. Overseas migration is climbing rapidly
Strong overseas migration plays a pivotal role in bolstering Australia’s housing resilience.
The influx of migrants contributes significantly to population growth, fostering sustained demand for housing across the country, which supports property values and stimulates construction activity, addressing housing shortages in high-demand areas.
Moreover, migrants often bring diverse skills and expertise, fuelling economic growth and creating employment opportunities, which further strengthens the housing market by boosting purchasing power and consumer confidence.
7. Australia’s economy is strong
A strong economy typically correlates with low unemployment rates and steady income growth, which in turn, enhances consumer confidence and improves investor and buyer confidence even amid fluctuating interest rates or other economic indicators.
Australia’s GDP growth graph:
Source: ABS
A thriving economy also helps to attract foreign investors and skilled migrants, further fuelling housing demand and stimulating construction activity, helping to maintain a healthy balance between supply and demand in the housing market.
A resilient economy also creates stability in mortgage markets and lending practices – low unemployment and economic uncertainty reduce the risk of mortgage defaults and create a stable property market.
So will Australian house prices crash in 2025?
I think you know my answer to this question already.
No, I don’t think we’ll see an Australian house price crash in 2025.
Michael Yardney
Predicting future movements in housing prices with certainty is challenging due to the multitude of factors that influence the market.
But what we can see is that economic conditions are robust, interest rates have peaked and are anticipated to begin their decline, supply is scarce. At the same time, demand is strong, and our economy and property market have made a strong recovery from the market lows.
The problem is, there will always be property sceptics.
That is, people who believe that property is overvalued and, as such, is a bad investment.
These predictions are made regularly. I see a prediction about a major crash almost every year.
I don’t think it will ever change.
But at some point, you must stop listening to attention-grabbing headlines and follow an evidence-based approach.
Will house prices ever go down? The best response to any concerns about property prices is to level up on a property’s quality and focus firmly on long-term outcomes.
That is, to focus on buying investment-grade property in A-grade suburbs which will withstand the test of time and fluctuations in the market.
That’s right, buy the ‘right’ property and play the long game.
Note: The fact is, I see the current market offering a window of opportunity for property investors with a long-term focus.
We have what someone would call a perfect storm of factors that will lead to strong property markets over the next couple of years:
- Continuing strong population growth
- A shortage of skilled labour
- A massive shortage of housing
- Inflation is coming under control, and will soon be within the Reserve Bank’s target range
- Interest rates are set to fall
When interest rates do start to fall and buyer and seller confidence returns, the property cycle will move to the next stage.
