China was a booming opportunity when United Airlines launched flights to Chengdu a decade ago.
“China is a market that is an economy that continues to grow at a very strong pace. And there are many opportunities in China that you can develop markets with, particularly with the [Boeing] 787,” Jim Compton, United’s then-chief revenue officer, said in July 2014.
Chengdu was part of the Chicago-based carrier’s “secondary Asian city strategy.” It also included returning to Taipei, Taiwan, the same year the Chengdu service launched and, in 2016, adding the Chinese city of Xi’an to its map. The airline’s future in China looked bright.
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United was not alone. The number of seats flown by all airlines between the U.S. and China grew by nearly 67% from 2014; it reached a peak of 5.3 million in 2018, according to Cirium Diio schedules. Airlines served the market with 5.2 million seats in 2019.
While there were complaints of competitive pressures — especially by U.S. airlines of their Chinese competitors — the area was widely seen as an opportunity.
Fast forward to today — one global pandemic and geopolitical adjustment later — and things look very, very different for airlines on U.S.-China routes.
“Demand for China is down dramatically than where it was in 2019,” Andrew Nocella, United’s current chief commercial officer, said in July. “And it’s also difficult to fly there because of the lack of Russian overflight ability. So those two combinations just make this the new normal.”
That “new normal,” as Nocella put it, is one where flights are severely restricted to 100 a week (50 for each country’s airlines). It’s one where Russian airspace is closed to U.S. airlines but not to the country’s Chinese counterparts. It’s also one where fewer Americans are traveling to China than Chinese nationals to the U.S.
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And United’s Chengdu flight? It hasn’t operated in four years.
Few nonstop US-China flight options
David Yu knows firsthand what it’s like to fly between the U.S. and China. A professor of finance at New York University Shanghai and the chair of Asia Aviation Valuation Advisors, he flies back and forth between the Washington, D.C., area and Shanghai frequently.
When asked about the experience, Yu’s first reaction was: “It costs a lot.”
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The high cost is the result of scarce supply. U.S. airlines are flying just 39 weekly nonstop flights, and their Chinese counterparts are flying 50 flights for 89 total, Cirium Diio schedules show. Before the coronavirus pandemic, there were around 340 weekly flights — nearly four times more than now.
American Airlines serves Shanghai daily from its Dallas-Fort Worth hub, and Delta Air Lines connects the city to Detroit and Seattle. Meanwhile, United Airlines links Beijing and Shanghai to San Francisco, according to Cirium Diio. Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Sichuan Airlines and Xiamen Airlines have also resumed select flights.
“From the U.S., the flights are very expensive,” Yu said. “I’m looking at flights from $2,000 to $2,500 for round-trip economy, and before COVID-19, these were $800 to $1,000 tickets.”
The cost of an economy round-trip ticket between Washington, D.C., and Shanghai with just one connection in each direction — the shortest itinerary available — is more than $1,900 on American and Delta in mid-September, Google Flights shows. Travelers may find no-frills basic economy fares closer to $1,500, but those don’t allow seat selection or free changes.
‘Aeropolitical challenges’
Delta, in a February filing with the U.S. Department of Transportation, cited “ongoing aeropolitical challenges” for its request to idle 32 of its 42 weekly U.S.-China flight rights through October.
A Delta spokesperson was not available to elaborate on the airline’s meaning of “aeropolitical challenges.”
In a letter to the U.S. State Department and the DOT in April, trade group Airlines for America — which counts American, Delta and United among its members — highlighted the “competitive disadvantage” U.S. airlines face compared to their Sino peers due to their inability to overfly Russian airspace.
The time difference can be dramatic. Delta’s nonstop flight to Shanghai from Detroit — the easternmost airport gateway to China among U.S. airlines that avoids Russian airspace — is scheduled at 15 hours and 40 minutes, according to Cirium Diio. It takes 40 minutes more than China Eastern Airlines’ New York City-to-Shanghai nonstop route that overflies Russia (even though the Detroit-Shanghai route is physically about 250 miles shorter).
A slow return of American travelers
Even after the easing of COVID-19 travel restrictions, the number of travelers between the U.S. and China remains a fraction of what it was in 2019. Only 1.2 million people flew between the two countries during the first seven months of 2024, compared to 5.1 million five years earlier, according to data from the U.S. International Trade Administration.
Not only is the overall number of U.S.-China travelers down, but the market has been hit especially hard by a decline in the number of American travelers — who are more likely to buy a ticket on a U.S. airline. The drop in the number of Chinese travelers is less steep, possibly offering a boost to Chinese-flagged carriers as compared to their U.S. counterparts. The share of Americans flying between the two countries was three percentage points lower during the first seven months of this year than in 2019, the data shows. The number of foreign travelers, the majority of which would be Chinese nationals, is up a commensurate amount.
The ITA data encompasses anyone flying between China and the U.S. This includes those taking a nonstop flight, as well as travelers who opt for a connecting flight through a hub in a third country, like South Korea or Japan.
There are undoubtedly many variables causing the slower rebound in Americans traveling to China. Some of these include high airfares and changes in business travel habits, Yu said.
“The people who want to go will go, who think there’s opportunities, will go. The people who it’s more casual, I’m sure they’re Zooming and telecommuting more these days versus flying,” he said.
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