We have often talked about how demand for electric vehicles is not taking off as expectations fall short. Now there are those who argue that they will do just fine by 2025, and they are the auto industry analysts at S&P Global Mobility.
Despite the fact that some automakers have scaled back their electric vehicle targets and the uncertainty surrounding the $7,500 federal tax credit in the US, electric vehicle sales are expected to grow significantly.
According to the automotive research company, sales of all-electric vehicles are expected to grow by 29.9 per cent globally next year. According to projections, 15.1 million electric vehicles will be sold worldwide in 2025, up from an estimated 11.6 million this year, increasing market share from 13.2 per cent to 16.7 per cent.
Estimated sales of electric vehicles in 2025
By the end of 2025, China is expected to have the largest electric vehicle market share in the world (29.7%). However, of all the regions considered in the S&P Global Mobility forecast, China is expected to have the smallest year-on-year change in market share (19.7%).
The United States tops the list, with a projected market share of 11.2% at the end of 2025, up 36% from 2024. Central and Western Europe, despite last year’s problems, is expected to end 2025 with an electric vehicle market share of 20.4 per cent, a leap of 43.4 per cent.
India, however, is set to double the number of electric vehicles on its roads next year, with a projected market share of 7.5% in December 2025, peaking at 117% over 2024.
| Region | Estimated share of electric vehicles at the end of 2025 | Annual change (2025 vs. 2024) |
| Central and Western Europe | 20.4% | 43.4% |
| United States | 11.2% | 36% |
| China | 29.7% | 19.7% |
| India | 7.5% | 117% |
| Global | 16.7% | 29.9% |
Car production in 2025
These are all very optimistic numbers, but it is worth emphasising once again that these are projections. We will have to wait and see what happens, particularly in the US, where the federal incentive for electric vehicles is expected to end soon, which could complicate things for both carmakers and buyers.
Meanwhile, according to the same estimates, global light vehicle production will decline by 0.4 per cent to 88.7 million units. “The auto industry continues to navigate uncertain terrain as we enter 2025, especially in anticipation of President-elect Trump’s universal tariffs,” said Mark Fulthorpe, executive director of global light vehicle forecasting at S&P Global Mobility.
“During 2025, the manufacturing landscape will change dramatically as global trade slows and retaliatory measures are likely to appear.”
